The MAGA movement, White Christian Nationalist and the Tech Lords are not concerned about economic collapse. They relish the thought of continued chaos. They represent the 37% that approves of this administration.
Under cover of chaos, they can take control of the country, regress laws back to 1895 and in the case of the Tech Lords set up a neo-feudalist regime with them as the lords of the manor.
They stupidly think the rest of the world will fall in line after their successful coup. The rest of the world has already moved on. Which means former US citizens will become 5th World subjects living in a dystopia that may take a generation or more to overthrow.
Looks like Fed will bail out 47’s Liberation Day fiasco by lowering rates aggressively if unemployment spikes higher. This regime lives to blunder another day.
Our former allies now have two potent weapons, selling MBS and Treasuries. They will continue to sell and diversify, when it suits them.
I don’t think that is what the Fed does. They have a quandary: we won’t see the inflationary effects of the tariffs for months, even if unemployment rates go up. IMO we’re in a stagflation period, which means recessionary conditions coupled with tariff-induced inflation. Lowering of interest rates is not the immediate solution.
I go by this quote Waller made on Bloomberg TV today.
“I’m not going to overreact to any tariff-induced inflation,” Waller said, “but if we start seeing a serious rise in unemployment, I would expect more rate cuts, and sooner.”
Trying to subscribe to a paid deal for the past few weeks. The form only shows GBP. The checkout page only shows GBP, can’t get it to convert to USD. Who knows how many others have tried and not been able to get prices in USD or check out in USD and given up? Plus there is no way to reach you directly. Blogs are better!
Hi Judith! Am I correct that you’re in the UK? If so, Substack supports multiple currencies. So you pay in your local currency and I receive payments converted into dollars. In terms of pricing there are 3 tiers: $5/monthly, $50/annually, and a special founding supporter level of $150/annually for those who want to provide extra support. Through month end, paid subscriptions are discounted by 20%. If you’re still interested in a paid subscription, try the link below. Thanks for your support!
This is an outstanding piece, especially the bit about Treasury yields moving up despite the stock market collapse (scary). Great to have the perspective of a veteran. Something that's getting on my nerves lately is that young folks seem to have no idea stocks can go down for long periods of time--as you well know, this isn't the case.
Marion, I like your analytical observations and conclusions. Here is my issue, we got here because of two grifting parties. The people in power forgot who they represent and why. I agree Trump is not the greatest president, but I don’t know who is. My awareness goes back to the Johnson era, so I am older maybe than your market! Each president has done a lot of things that we now understand and acknowledge as corrupt, illegal, and detrimental to Americans in the short and long run.
The tariffs may take a while before they are felt, or we may feel them tomorrow. All the corruption, money laundering, societal destruction done by both parties has us arguing about crumbs on the table. While we argue about who needs the crumbs the most, mice have sneaked in and eaten the crumbs.
The next couple of months, years are going to be incredibly difficult for most people. The choices of food, where to live, how we will live is all going to change, and change dramatically. I am able to settle for less. I can do it so can you and the readers of this Substack. It means communities become more powerful, states become far more independent, and Washington, DC, and its corruption dies.
* I was a low level bank telemarketing representative when the BIG drop in the stock market happened, late 1980s and state banks were crashing. One rather arrogant bank VP watched from the balcony a run on a local competitor and laughed. I just shook my head, what happened to them would happen to us several months later. Working with a bank that is selling off its asset to stop a government take over is not a fun place to be.
Marlon I don't know why I gave this article a ❤️. It has scared the livin' crap out of me!
But keep doin what you doin', I appreciate you!
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but thanks for the encouragement!
The MAGA movement, White Christian Nationalist and the Tech Lords are not concerned about economic collapse. They relish the thought of continued chaos. They represent the 37% that approves of this administration.
Under cover of chaos, they can take control of the country, regress laws back to 1895 and in the case of the Tech Lords set up a neo-feudalist regime with them as the lords of the manor.
They stupidly think the rest of the world will fall in line after their successful coup. The rest of the world has already moved on. Which means former US citizens will become 5th World subjects living in a dystopia that may take a generation or more to overthrow.
That may be what their fantasy is.
Desperate people very often do the unexpected.
I seriously despise everything you just said. But I can’t dispute the reality of it. What has this world … this country come to … OMFG
Thanks for sharing your experience Marlon.
Looks like Fed will bail out 47’s Liberation Day fiasco by lowering rates aggressively if unemployment spikes higher. This regime lives to blunder another day.
Our former allies now have two potent weapons, selling MBS and Treasuries. They will continue to sell and diversify, when it suits them.
I’m aware. I stand by my comment. Powells term is up in a year and I suspect Waller is angling to replace him.
That sounds like a good call re Waller. I re-read your original note. Stagflation is not something the Fed can easily cure.
I don’t think that is what the Fed does. They have a quandary: we won’t see the inflationary effects of the tariffs for months, even if unemployment rates go up. IMO we’re in a stagflation period, which means recessionary conditions coupled with tariff-induced inflation. Lowering of interest rates is not the immediate solution.
Thanks Marlon for the explanation.
I go by this quote Waller made on Bloomberg TV today.
“I’m not going to overreact to any tariff-induced inflation,” Waller said, “but if we start seeing a serious rise in unemployment, I would expect more rate cuts, and sooner.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/thedarksideoftheboom/p/new-york-close-fed-waller-blinks
And this kind of writing/analysis/terrifying heads up is why I am a very enthusiastic paid subscriber!
Thanks so much for your support and encouragement!
Trying to subscribe to a paid deal for the past few weeks. The form only shows GBP. The checkout page only shows GBP, can’t get it to convert to USD. Who knows how many others have tried and not been able to get prices in USD or check out in USD and given up? Plus there is no way to reach you directly. Blogs are better!
Hi Judith! Am I correct that you’re in the UK? If so, Substack supports multiple currencies. So you pay in your local currency and I receive payments converted into dollars. In terms of pricing there are 3 tiers: $5/monthly, $50/annually, and a special founding supporter level of $150/annually for those who want to provide extra support. Through month end, paid subscriptions are discounted by 20%. If you’re still interested in a paid subscription, try the link below. Thanks for your support!
https://thejourneyman.substack.com/d3e11b73
As usual thank you for bringing the truth to the surface and detailing the why!
This is an outstanding piece, especially the bit about Treasury yields moving up despite the stock market collapse (scary). Great to have the perspective of a veteran. Something that's getting on my nerves lately is that young folks seem to have no idea stocks can go down for long periods of time--as you well know, this isn't the case.
Marion, I like your analytical observations and conclusions. Here is my issue, we got here because of two grifting parties. The people in power forgot who they represent and why. I agree Trump is not the greatest president, but I don’t know who is. My awareness goes back to the Johnson era, so I am older maybe than your market! Each president has done a lot of things that we now understand and acknowledge as corrupt, illegal, and detrimental to Americans in the short and long run.
The tariffs may take a while before they are felt, or we may feel them tomorrow. All the corruption, money laundering, societal destruction done by both parties has us arguing about crumbs on the table. While we argue about who needs the crumbs the most, mice have sneaked in and eaten the crumbs.
The next couple of months, years are going to be incredibly difficult for most people. The choices of food, where to live, how we will live is all going to change, and change dramatically. I am able to settle for less. I can do it so can you and the readers of this Substack. It means communities become more powerful, states become far more independent, and Washington, DC, and its corruption dies.
* I was a low level bank telemarketing representative when the BIG drop in the stock market happened, late 1980s and state banks were crashing. One rather arrogant bank VP watched from the balcony a run on a local competitor and laughed. I just shook my head, what happened to them would happen to us several months later. Working with a bank that is selling off its asset to stop a government take over is not a fun place to be.
Best wishes,
This analysis is spot on. I wish more people had a better understanding of economic issues.