Republicans Should Never Hold Power Again
When it mattered most, Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell chose power over country
Trading is as much of a skill as it is a science. Regardless of what the analysis, the charts, or the algorithms say, more times than not, a trader goes with their gut. Maybe it’s a feeling about the market's direction or stock that doesn’t feel right. Other times, it’s a hunch regarding a merger that might occur.
On the rare occasions when the planets align, and the big picture reveals itself, the result is a phenomenon akin to that of Neo’s experience in The Matrix, a breathtakingly obvious pattern emerges, visible only to the individual tasked with executing the trade. In sports parlance, the trader is in the zone.
Generally speaking, traders make a valiant effort to convey these messages from the beyond to clients hoping to garner favor, or if they're lucky, receive a sizable trade for their prescience. Most of the time, the client declines to listen, leaving the trader unfulfilled.
When I worked on Wall Street, going with my gut sometimes resulted in that type of call. But although my clients failed to seize upon my momentary clairvoyance as often as I would’ve liked, I always remembered a basic principle known to any trader worth his or her salt.
Never say “I told you so.”
Southern Comfortable
As much as the South embarrasses me on occasion, those of us who hail from America's down under are adept at using polite statements like “Bless your heart” as a way of expressing things better left unsaid.
Similarly, when the gods of trading smiled on me, I relied on colloquialisms (or is it idioms?) such as, “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while,” or “Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.”
Those disarming comments served as a means of subtly humble-bragging regarding my trading prowess, while maintaining a veneer of bashfulness. But as fellow Southerner Dizzy Dean once said, “It ain’t bragging if you can back it up.”
In January of last year, just days after Trump’s supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol, I wrote a piece entitled, “Do Republicans Want Democrats to Help Them Banish Trump from Politics?” The upshot of my essay was that Republicans, Mitch McConnell in particular, saw the January 6th insurrection as an opportunity to ditch Trump once and for all.
I based my argument on a sequence of events by Republican leadership that, to me at least, signaled a coordinated strategy to keep Trump from running for president in 2024, with the Democratic majority doing the dirty work.
Recall that before Pence took the possibility of the 25th Amendment off the table on January 12, Education Secretary Betsy DeVoss and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao (who is also McConnell’s wife) both resigned, putting his ability to invoke the 25th Amendment into question. Also, if the goal was to prohibit Trump from a 2024 presidential run, the 25th Amendment is a half measure.
Around the same time, Liz Cheney, who at the time ranked third in House Republican leadership, announced she would vote to impeach in a scathing statement. When McConnell signaled he might vote to convict Trump, I thought I was on to something. Perhaps Republicans had finally grown a spine. I thought they wanted to rid themselves of the scourge of Trumpism. I was sure the sharks in the Republican Party smelled blood.
But to accomplish the objective of removing Trump from running in 2024, Moscow Mitch needed the 14th Amendment, not the 25th Amendment or impeachment alone. Here’s what I wrote at the time:
If McConnell’s goal is to remove Trump as a future political threat, he cannot accomplish that with an impeachment conviction alone.
According to the Constitution, there are two ways to punish an impeached official: removal from office or ‘disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.’
The Constitution requires a two-thirds Senate majority for removal. Under congressional precedent, only a simple majority is needed for disqualification. But historically, that vote only happens after a conviction. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, however, provides an alternative mechanism for disqualification. Enacted following the Civil War to prevent Confederates from holding public office, the 14 Amendment states that no person shall hold office if they have engaged in “insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.
Trump was impeached by the House with a family single article — “Incitement of Insurrection.”
Suppose McConnell wants to disqualify Trump from holding future office under the 14th Amendment. In that case, Democrats can do his dirty work, since they will hold the majority in the Senate, according to The Washington Post’s Michael S. Rosenwald:
When McConnell signaled he might vote to convict Trump, I became even more convinced the move to oust Trump was gaining traction. Perhaps Republicans had finally grown a spine. I thought they wanted to rid themselves of the scourge of Trumpism. I was sure the sharks smelled blood.
But then the Senate failed to convict Trump. Within days, Kevin McCarthy flew to Mar-a-Largo to kiss Trump’s…er…ring, and, voila, it was as though Trump never tried to overthrow the United States government. And just like that, Trump went from traitor to presumptive 2024 frontrunner.
Given the turn of events, I concluded the pattern I believed was emerging was a combination of wishful thinking and bad analysis on my part. Fast forward to this month. What happened leading up to and in the days following the insurrection was worse than I imagined.
We now know almost every Republican senator was on board with Trump’s attempted coup. Even Utah senator Mike Lee, who styles himself as a voice of reason, worked with Trump behind the scenes, searching for ways to throw democracy out the window. Thanks to reporters from The New York Times, we also know that Republicans were appalled regarding the insurrection—at least in the beginning.
Both McConnell and McCarthy wanted to use the insurrection to send Trump packing for good. True to form, McCarthy, McConnell, and their compadres lied or obfuscated whenever questioned about Trump and his cronies by the press.
For reasons I do not understand, Republicans seem unaware that we live in an age of digital technology. Much of their scheming and coup plotting is documented, either in the form of text messages or audio recordings. Even better than text messages last week, we learned that—to channel James Comey—LORDY, THERE ARE TAPES.
In an audio conversation between Kevin McCarthy and Liz Cheney revealed last week during The Rachel Maddow Show, we now know that Republicans discussed enacting the 25th Amendment after the events of January 6.
We also know McCarthy worried that if he spoke to Trump about resigning, The Former Guy would try to negotiate a pardon, which only makes sense if one knows they’ve committed a crime:
Liz Cheney: Yeah I’m here, thanks, Kevin. I guess there is a question, when we are talking about the 25th Amendment resolution. And you asked if, you know, what happens if — is there any chance, are you hearing that he might resign, is there any reason to think that might happen?
Kevin McCarthy: I’ve had a few discussions. My gut tells me no. I’m seriously thinking of having that conversation with him tonight. I haven’t talked to him in a couple of days. From what I know of him, I mean you guys know him to, do you think he would ever back away? But I think what I’m going to do, is I’m going to call him. This is what I think, we know it’ll pass the House [Democrats held a House majority]. I think there’s a chance it’ll pass the Senate, even when he is gone. And I think there’s a lot of different ramifications for that. Now, I haven’t had a discussion with the Dems, that if he did resign, with that happen? Now, this is one personal fear I have. I do not want to get into any conversation about Pence pardoning. Again, the only discussion I would have with him is that I think this will pass. And it will be my recommendation you should resign. I mean, that would be my take. But I don’t think he would take it. But I don’t know.
According to The New York Times, after broaching the idea of a 25th Amendment resolution, privately McConnell discussed his desire for Democrats to do the Republican’s job for them and drive Trump out of politics (emphasis added):
In the Senate, Mr. McConnell’s reversal was no less revealing. Late on the night of Jan. 6, Mr. McConnell predicted to associates that his party would soon break sharply with Mr. Trump and his acolytes; the Republican leader even asked a reporter in the Capitol for information about whether the cabinet might really pursue the 25th Amendment.
When that did not materialize, Mr. McConnell’s thoughts turned to impeachment.
On Monday, Jan. 11, Mr. McConnell met over lunch in Kentucky with two longtime advisers, Terry Carmack and Scott Jennings. Feasting on Chick-fil-A in Mr. Jennings’s Louisville office, the Senate Republican leader predicted Mr. Trump’s imminent political demise.
“The Democrats are going to take care of the son of a bitch for us,” Mr. McConnell said, referring to the imminent impeachment vote in the House.
Mr. McConnell knew the Senate math as well as anyone and he told his advisers he expected a robust bipartisan vote for conviction. After that, Congress could then bar Mr. Trump from ever holding public office again.
The president’s behavior on Jan. 6 had been utterly beyond the pale, Mr. McConnell said. “If this isn’t impeachable, I don’t know what is,” he said.
Since I’m no longer a trader, I suppose I'm allowed to say it: I told you so.
Both Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell knew that Trump deserved banishment from politics and, more than likely, a prison sentence. But neither man had the intestinal fortitude—the guts—to step up when it mattered most.
They wanted Democrats to do their job for them.
They were so fearful of Trump and his supporters that they hoped Democrats would do their job for them. Given a choice between leadership and maintaining power, each man chose the latter.
So what if America’s democracy went to hell in the process.
