Sure, Joe Biden Is Old. That Doesn’t Mean He Should Step Aside.
Even at 80 years of age, Joe Biden is the Democratic Party's best chance of holding onto the White House
If he runs and wins the 2024 presidential election, Joe Biden will be 82 at the beginning of his second term. Should he complete another four years in office, Dark Brandon will be 86. With the age question hanging over his head, there is no shortage of media attention focused on Biden, even though his likely opponent is no spring chicken.
According to liberal pundits like Michelle Goldberg of The New York Times, there is significant handwringing among the Democratic establishment about Biden’s age. While Biden has been a successful president, Goldberg says he’s too old for a second term. She, like others in the Democratic intelligentsia, thinks he should step aside and let a younger person run for president in his place:
[I]t’s hard to ignore the toll of Biden’s years, no matter how hard elected Democrats try. In some ways, the more sympathetic you are to Biden, the harder it can be to watch him stumble over his words, a tendency that can’t be entirely explained by his stutter. Longwell said Democrats in her focus group talked about holding their breath every time he speaks. And while Biden was able to campaign virtually in 2020, in 2024 we will almost certainly be back to a grueling real-world campaign schedule, which he would have to power through while running the country. It’s a herculean task for a 60-year-old and a near impossible one for an octogenarian.
Goldberg’s opinion notwithstanding, Biden’s age certainly hasn’t impacted his presidential performance. Since winning the 2020 election, he has knocked the cover off the ball regarding policies. Given that he came into office amid a pandemic — and on the heels of a violent insurrection — it’s fair to say that only Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt entered office under more challenging circumstances than Joe Biden.
Biden’s record as president is so stellar that not running for reelection is tantamount to political malpractice. Despite a pandemic and social upheaval, not to mention a slim majority in Congress, Biden has one hell of a legislative record on which to run.
Despite being long in the tooth, legislatively Biden is the most successful president since LBJ, perhaps even since FDR. And if the polls are any indication, Biden has reestablished America’s leadership status on the world stage:
Gallup's world leadership survey, which was conducted before the start of Russia's war in Ukraine, illustrates just how much Europe and other countries soured on the US as Trump labeled the Western alliance "obsolete," slapped US allies with tariffs, and furthered Russian President Vladimir Putin's goal of destabilizing global democracy.
According to Gallup's polling, 20 out of the 27 NATO nations gave America a double-digit bump in post-Trump approval ratings. The largest increase came from Portugal where views of the US shot up 52-percentage points (64% overall approving rating). Significant bumps also occurred in the Netherlands with 45-points (63%); Norway with 42-points; and Canada with 38-points (55%). Lithuania was the only NATO nation where views of the US dropped at all, down 6-points (22%).
The polling suggests that despite Biden's currently weak domestic approval, he is succeeding in his goal of restoring America's role as a global leader post-Trump, and was able to bring NATO together ahead of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Those who think Biden can’t handle the rigors of a presidential campaign should take note of his schedule over the last few weeks. Earlier this month, he delivered a State of the Union speech in which he exuded strength and was agile enough to trip Republicans up on cuts to Social Security.
Biden followed up his SOTU speech with a surprise visit to Ukraine — the first American leader to visit a warzone without the presence of the U.S. military in modern times. From Kyiv, Biden headed to Poland to shore up NATO support. That’s quite a display of stamina for an octogenarian or anyone for that matter.
With Biden out, Democrats’ prospects are uncertain
Because there isn’t an obvious alternative, Biden not running for reelection poses a considerable political risk for Democrats.
When a president decides not to run for a second term, the vice president is typically the apparent successor. But in the case of Kamala Harris, stepping into Biden’s shoes in 2024 isn’t a fait accompli.
Fair or not, the public has set a higher bar for Harris than previous vice presidents (name one of Mike Pence’s accomplishments as vice president, I dare you). Be it misogynoir, garden-variety racism, or Party pearl-clutching, Harris would likely face a Democratic primary should Biden decide not to run.
Maybe Harris could win, but it’s a toss-up. Moreover, a Harris primary loss spells trouble for Democrats. It doesn’t take a genius to understand the enormous negative implications of passing over Harris, the first woman and person of color elected vice president.
The fallout for Democrats would be substantial, especially in states where the Black vote is crucial, like South Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan. Bottom line: Democrats can say goodbye to Black turnout.
Putting the Harris factor aside, what other Democrat can win in 2024 anyway? There isn’t an obvious alternative. Liz Warren and Bernie present the same age issue as Biden, so he’s a no-go. While Gavin Newsome could be an attractive candidate (literally), Republicans would salivate at the chance to run against a California liberal.
The power of incumbency
Consider this: since the advent of presidential term limits, we’ve had three two-term presidents in a row: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Should Democrats show Biden the door, their home-field advantage goes away, making chances for Republicans much better.
If Democrats wanted to get Machiavellian (the way Republicans do all the time), they’d stick with Biden. Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination, which takes the question of age off the table.
Even Goldberg acknowledges that the more the country sees Trump, the less popular he becomes. Assuming he isn’t headed to federal prison by Election Day, there’s no reason to think Biden won’t beat him again.
Strategically, Biden would be wise to turn over the reins to Harris midway through a second term. If the worst happens, Harris can take over and elevate Newsome or another youthful Democrat as her vice president. Her stock would almost certainly rise as in the Oval Office, setting her up to run as an incumbent in the 2028 election.
Bottom line: a Biden run is the only thing that makes sense for Democrats. And not for nothing, but perhaps the best time to roll the dice on generational change is after we put down the anti-democratic forces in our midst.
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